Durable equilibrium: explaining palm oil policy continuity in Indonesia through the lens of punctuated equilibrium theory

Abstract

This paper examines Indonesian palm oil policy across the presidential transition from Joko Widodo to Prabowo Subianto. Contrary to expectations that leadership change would punctuate policy direction, the Prabowo administration reinforces a pro-industry policy equilibrium established under his predecessor. Using Punctuated Equilibrium Theory, we argue that a resilient policy monopoly anchored in the mandatory biodiesel program and the Palm Oil Plantation Fund Management Agency (BPDPKS) has preserved the status quo. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of budget flows, production trends, and consumption patterns (2014–2026) reveal incremental adjustments rather than disruption. Stability is sustained through control of policy image, marginalization of competing problem definitions, and alignment of elite interests. The study contributes by demonstrating how leadership turnover in developing democracies may entrench rather than disrupt monopolies, extending PET to resource-based governance in the Global South, and showing how off-budget funding and narrative control sustain palm oil’s dominance despite environmental and social pressures.