Drought vulnerability assessment and its severe impact on crop production and livelihood of people: An empirical modelling of northern Ghana

Climate change is intensifying drought vulnerability in northern Ghana, posing serious risks to crop production, food security, and rural livelihoods in semi-arid regions. This study develops an empirical modelling framework to assess drought vulnerability and impacts at three temporal horizons, 2026–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We integrated bias-corrected outputs from five CMIP6 models, MRI-ESM2–0, EC-Earth3, IPSL-CM6A-LR, CESM2, and HadGEM3-GC31-LL, downscaled to 0.25° resolution, with drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Index SPI, Reconnaissance Drought Index RDI, Normalized Difference Drought Index NDDI, and Soil Moisture Index SMI. These were combined with MODIS-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI, population density, and land use/land cover using GIS-based tools to generate composite drought vulnerability maps. CMIP6 models were validated against reference datasets and showed strong performance for annual precipitation, r = 0.95, RMSE = 3.4 mm, and temperature, r = 0.99, RMSE = 0.47–0.74°C. Results project increasing drought severity, with mean temperature rises of 2.0–3.9°C and rainfall declines up to 19% by 2100. Crop yields for maize, millet, sorghum, and groundnuts are expected to fall by 25–60% by 2050, with maize showing the strongest negative correlation to drought severity, r = –0.72, p < 0.01, confirmed by Mann-Kendall trends at the 95% confidence level. About 84% of the study area is classified as highly vulnerable due to limited adaptive capacity, over 80% dependence on rain-fed agriculture, more than 49% household food insecurity, less than 23% cropland use, and under 5% water body coverage. Significant uncertainties remain in precipitation projections, with some models showing divergent temperature trends, highlighting challenges in modelling climate impacts. The findings underscore the urgent need for district-level drought preparedness, solar-powered irrigation, index insurance, climate-smart agriculture, and Disaster Risk Reduction aligned with UNDRR and Sendai Framework priorities to build resilience in northern Ghana.