Drivers of China’s Sectoral Carbon Emissions: A Nested IO-SDA and Network Decoupling Analysis

This study examines the structural drivers of carbon emission changes across 30 Chinese sectors from 2002 to 2023, employing a nested input–output structural decomposition analysis model grounded in both producer and consumer principles. We further construct a carbon inequality-adjusted network decoupling index to eliminate the systematic carbon transfer bias inherent to the conventional Tapio decoupling indicator. The core empirical findings are as follows: declining carbon intensity has served as the primary driver of emission reductions over the past two decades; however, its effect has been persistently offset by economic expansion. Upstream sectors, such as electricity generation, transfer substantial emissions downstream through sectoral chains, leading to a systematic overestimation of their decoupling performance, whereas the emission reductions in downstream manufacturing sectors are underestimated owing to embodied carbon imports. Inter-industry carbon inequality underwent a structural transformation following the launch of supply-side structural reforms in 2015, which substantially narrowed the arbitrage space for cross-sector carbon shifting. Cluster analysis further reveals that most industries continue to face considerable emission growth pressure. This study offers novel analytical perspectives and empirical evidence for designing carbon allowance allocation and differentiated emission reduction pathways that reconcile economic growth with environmental sustainability. This study offers a new analytical perspective and empirical evidence. It focuses on differentiated emission pathways and allowance allocations. The goal is to balance growth and sustainability. The findings also highlight a key point. Carbon markets must correct for sectoral chain carbon transfers. This study focuses on carbon emissions from 30 broadly defined sectors covering agriculture, mining, manufacturing, energy production and supply, construction, transportation, and commercial services. The accounting scope does not include direct fuel combustion emissions from residential consumption.