Does Uneven-aged Douglas-fir Management Compete Economically with Even-aged Systems in Productive Western Oregon Sites?

Even-aged silviculture dominates Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) management in Western Oregon, yet increasing interest in continuous-cover forestry and carbon pricing has renewed attention to the potential economic performance of uneven-aged systems. This study examined the conditions under which uneven-aged Douglas-fir management can become economically competitive with the even-aged management systems in Western Oregon under varying financial and carbon market conditions. Both systems were evaluated using a land expectation value (LEV) framework with identical timber prices, carbon values, and discount rates. For even-aged management, higher planting densities with no thinning regime maximized total LEVs, reaching $13,864.25 ha-1 under a 35-year rotation. The most competitive uneven-aged regime, defined by a residual basal area of 23.0 m2 ha-1 and a 10-year cutting cycle, achieved a substantially lower LEV of $8,635.84 ha-1. Sensitivity analyses indicate that higher discount rates sharply reduce LEVs under both systems, while higher carbon prices increase LEVs and narrow the profitability gap between management systems. A switching point emerges at 2.96% under lower carbon prices, whereas the highest performing uneven-aged management remained more profitable than the best performing even-aged regime under the higher carbon price. Overall, uneven-aged management becomes relatively more competitive under low discount rates and higher carbon prices, but even-aged management remains financially dominant in baseline conditions in Western Oregon.