Does the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Promote Forest Product Exports? Evidence on Bilateral Export Performance from China

This study examines the quarterly export data of forest products at the Harmonized System 6-digit level from China′s 31 provinces to destination economies from 2017 to 2023 to examine the impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement on bilateral forest product trade. A time-varying Difference-in-Differences model is constructed using the effective dates of the agreement for each member, combined with the Propensity Score Matching method, comparing export flows between China with member and non-member economies in the pre- and post-agreement periods. The main findings indicate that the effective commitments of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in destination economies have significantly enhanced the bilateral exports of forest products from China’s provinces. Compared with non-member destination economies, China’s exports of timber forest products to member countries increased by over 22% after the agreement came into effect, with notable increases in eastern coastal provinces and in processed forest products including wooden furniture and paper products. To maximize the promotion of forest product exports under this framework, it is suggested that China enhance transportation links between its central and western inland provinces to reduce transportation costs. Additionally, closer trade cooperation among member countries is recommended to facilitate the development of trade in intermediate products. Furthermore, the strengthened collaboration between upstream and downstream industries could facilitate the integrated development of the regional timber processing industry supply chain.