Does the Internet Replace Guanxi? Relational Investment and Income Quality in Rural China

Does the Internet replace guanxi as a source of economic opportunity? Using 13,273 household-year observations from four waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS, 2014–2020), this study examines whether Internet use conditions the marginal association between relational investment and household income quality during an earlier phase of rural digitalization in China. Income quality is measured along four dimensions: adequacy, structure, stability, and cost. We estimate household fixed-effects models with county × year fixed effects using an equal-weighted composite index. In the absence of a strong source of exogenous variation, the estimates are interpreted as conditional associations rather than causal effects. The results show that relational investment and Internet use are both positively associated with income quality, while their interaction is negative. This attenuation is concentrated in income adequacy and structure, with no significant interaction for stability or cost. We therefore interpret the negative interaction as consistent with partial relational uncoupling rather than as uniquely identifying a substitution mechanism: Internet use may weaken selected opportunity-allocation functions of guanxi without displacing guanxi as a social relationship. The supplementary off-farm-employment analysis does not establish mediation, although relational investment remains positively associated with off-farm employment. Heterogeneity is most suggestive among households with stronger non-farm livelihood orientation. Overall, the findings suggest that Internet use may reshape the opportunity-related economic role of guanxi without displacing its broader social functions, with implications for digital inclusion and sustainable rural livelihoods.