Does Green Power Transmission Bridge or Widen the Regional Divide? Evidence from Spatial Welfare Mismatch in China

Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality, the cross-regional allocation of green electricity is pivotal for energy transition, yet its impact on inclusive economic growth and regional equity remains contentious. This study addresses the spatial welfare mismatch arising from large-scale power transmission in China. Utilizing provincial panel data from 2006 to 2022 and employing the staggered rollout of Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) lines as a quasi-natural experiment, we apply advanced econometric models, including CS-DID and Bartik instrumental variables, to identify causal effects. Empirical results reveal an asymmetric “cost-benefit separation” effect: while green electricity imports significantly bolster high-quality development (HQD) in eastern recipient regions, exports exert a drag on western provinces by triggering capital outflow, profit deprivation, and ecological load. Consequently, regional HQD gaps exhibit divergence rather than convergence. However, we find that fiscal ecological compensation acts as a critical moderating buffer, effectively reversing this trend and driving conditional convergence and sustainable regional development. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that market-oriented electricity reforms and “East Data, West Computing” infrastructure mitigate these negative externalities. These findings underscore the necessity of shifting from a purely engineering-focused transmission model to an institutional framework centered on energy justice, offering actionable insights for achieving SDG 7 and SDG 10 synergies.