Does Global Economic Uncertainty Matter for Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Central and Eastern Europe? Evidence from Linear and Asymmetric Dynamic Panel Models

Global uncertainty can influence carbon emissions by changing economic activity, investment decisions, access to finance, energy choices, and the implementation of environmental policy. The Russia–Ukraine war has further intensified uncertainty, energy-price volatility, and concerns about supply security in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), where countries differ considerably in their energy systems and progress towards decarbonisation. This study examines the relationship between global uncertainty and fossil CO2 emissions per capita in ten CEE European Union economies during 1997–2024. Two complementary indicators are considered: the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, and the World Uncertainty Index. The analysis distinguishes between short- and long-run effects and examines whether increases and decreases in uncertainty produce different emission responses. The results indicate that the influence of global uncertainty is generally temporary, weak, or sensitive to model assumptions, with no consistent regional evidence of an asymmetric response. In contrast, the strong and persistent association between energy consumption and fossil CO2 emissions partly reflects an accounting relationship, while the environmental effect of economic growth remains uncertain. These findings indicate that, at the aggregate regional level, the estimated response of fossil CO2 emissions to global uncertainty is weak and not statistically robust; however, this should not be interpreted as conclusive evidence of regional resilience.