Does geographical origin shape career destinations? Risk attitude and graduates’ entry into superstar cities

Migration to large metropolitan areas has long been associated with upward social mobility, yet limited attention has been paid to how individual agency interacts with structural factors in shaping realized migration outcomes. Adopting a structure–agency perspective, this study examines university graduates’ entry into China’s superstar cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, using data from the 2022 University Graduate Employment Survey. We conceptualize geographical origin as a key structural factor reflecting spatial inequality, and risk attitude as an indicator of individual agency capturing graduates’ responses to labor market stress. Binary Logit models with interaction terms are employed to assess their joint effects. The results show that over 30% of graduates are employed in superstar cities, indicating their continued attraction. However, access remains highly stratified. Graduates from lower-tier cities and rural areas face significantly lower probabilities of entry. Risk attitude has no significant independent effect but operates conditionally: higher risk tolerance partially offsets structural disadvantage among rural-origin graduates. This compensatory effect is gendered, emerging only among rural male graduates. In addition, university location in coastal regions and attendance at elite institutions substantially increase the likelihood of superstar-city employment. Overall, the findings suggest that individual agency should be understood as conditional, compensatory, and gendered rather than as a general individual attribute, highlighting its uneven operation under conditions of spatial inequality.