Does Climate Change Affect Macroeconomic Conditions in Vietnam? A Wavelet–ANN Analysis

Climate change (CLC) has emerged as a material macroeconomic and financial-stability risk, yet its nonlinear and horizon-dependent implications for developing economies remain insufficiently understood. This study investigates the dynamic relationships between CLC, economic growth (GDP), inflation (INF), and money supply (M3) in Vietnam from 1996 to 2022 using an integrated Wavelet–ANN framework comprising Random Forest analysis, wavelet-based ANN regression, and predictive-causality testing. The results highlight a positive but diminishing CLC–GDP association, consistent with carbon-intensive development rather than a beneficial climatic effect. The CLC–INF nexus is weak and unstable, suggesting episodic transmission through food, energy, and supply-chain disruptions. CLC is positively associated with M3 in the original series, while bidirectional predictability emerges at the long-run horizon, indicating slow-moving interactions driven by liquidity needs, credit reallocation, and adaptation financing. These findings support incorporating climate risk into macroeconomic forecasting, inflation monitoring, monetary stress testing, and climate-resilient credit policies in Vietnam.