Do sectarian differences affect support for armed non-state actors? Evidence from survey experiments in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen

Abstract

Sectarian cleavages are widely seen as central to Middle Eastern conflict, and Iran-backed armed non-state actors (ANSAs)—Hezbollah, the popular mobilization units, and the Houthis—are often portrayed as sectarian militias. Yet there is little empirical evidence that public support for these actors systematically varies along sectarian lines. Drawing on original survey experiments conducted in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen during the 2023–2025 Gaza war, this study uses a list experiment to mitigate social desirability bias and measure whether citizens view their domestic ANSA as a source of instability. Nearly half of respondents in each country expressed criticism. Sectarian affiliation alone does not explain variation. Instead, favorable attitudes toward Iran are associated with reduced criticism of ANSAs. This effect is not reducible to co-sectarian identity: perceptions of Iran as a regional power confronting Israel provide a more consistent explanation. The findings highlight the limits of static sectarian accounts and underscore the importance of geopolitical evaluations.