DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.185505.1 ISSN: 2046-1402

Do instructional leadership, budget management, and teacher reflection predict literacy and numeracy achievement?

Guritno Wahyu Wijanarko, Izza Mafruhah, Aniek Hindrayani, Muhammad Sabandi
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Background Improving literacy and numeracy remains a central priority in Indonesian education reform, yet evidence on how school-level managerial and instructional factors relate to these outcomes remains limited, particularly within the National Assessment framework. Methods This quantitative explanatory study analyzed secondary administrative panel data comprising 2,952 school-year observations from elementary, junior high, and senior high schools in Bangka Belitung Islands Province, Indonesia, during 2022–2024. Data were obtained from Rapor Pendidikan, Dapodik, and BOS financial reports and standardized on a 0–100 scale. Panel regression and regression-based mediation analyses were conducted using EViews to examine the associations among principal leadership, budget management, teacher reflection, learning quality, and student literacy and numeracy achievement . Results Principal leadership, teacher reflection, and learning quality were positively associated with both literacy and numeracy achievement. Teacher reflection and learning quality emerged as key instructional predictors. By contrast, budget management showed significant negative associations with literacy, numeracy, and teacher reflection. The mediation analysis indicated a significant negative indirect pathway from budget management to student achievement through teacher reflection. Conclusions The findings suggest that financial resources alone do not guarantee stronger learning outcomes unless budget management is aligned with pedagogical development. Strengthening instructional leadership, reflective teaching cultures, learning quality, and the instructional orientation of BOS fund utilization may support improvements in literacy and numeracy in Indonesian schools.

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