Do Increases and Decreases Matter Equally? Asymmetric and Regionally Heterogeneous Housing-Stock Interactions in Mainland China

This study examines the asymmetric relationship between housing prices and stock market returns across China’s major economic regions. Specifically, it investigates whether positive and negative shocks exhibit different transmission dynamics and whether these dynamics vary across regions characterized by different levels of financial development and housing market maturity. Using monthly data from 2005 to 2024, the study employs region-specific asymmetric vector autoregression (VAR) models, asymmetric Granger causality tests, and generalized impulse response analysis based on asymmetric decompositions of housing prices and stock market returns. The results suggest that statistically significant housing-to-stock predictability is observed primarily following negative housing price shocks in selected regions, whereas positive shocks generally exhibit weaker or statistically insignificant predictive effects. Conversely, positive stock market shocks generally provide more consistent evidence of stock-to-housing predictability, particularly in the Eastern and Central regions, although the responses are more mixed in the Western region and vary in magnitude, statistical significance, and persistence across regional markets. Overall, the results provide evidence of heterogeneous dynamic transmission patterns across China’s major economic regions and suggest that housing-related downside risk may represent an important source of regional macro-financial vulnerability.