Do Ads Persuade Voters in Direct Democratic Campaigns?

Abstract

One of the primary goals of political campaigns is to shape voters' decisions. Despite elites spending money on advertising, its effectiveness in persuading voters remains a subject of debate. Based on theories of attitude change, I argue that increased exposure to advertising persuades voters to change their vote intention in the direction of the ads. Moreover, this study examines the moderating effect of sophistication on the relationship between ad exposure and vote choice. To test the effect of print and online advertisements on vote change, I link detailed campaign advertisement data to individual‐level rolling cross‐section panel data from the 2023 Climate Law referendum in Switzerland. The findings show that exposure to advertisements against the Climate Law significantly influences vote change, while exposure to ads in favor does not reach statistical significance. Evidence regarding sophistication's moderating role is limited.