Diverse Connections Between Climate Extremes and Agricultural Loss Across the Southern Slopes of the Himalayas

Abstract

The increasing frequency of drought, heat stress and extreme precipitation is intensifying risks to agricultural systems in the Southern Slopes of the Himalaya (SSH) under climate change. Understanding crop loss responses across cropping systems is critical for regional food security. Yet, which extremes dominate productivity loss and how their risk patterns differ across systems remain unclear. Across the three climate extremes considered, loss probability dominated crop productivity risk in 77% of the study area. Double cropping showed a probability dominated vulnerability pattern, whereas single cropping exhibited a magnitude amplified pattern. Drought remained the dominant regional risk source, with its contribution declining as extreme precipitation and heat stress became more important. Furthermore, loss probability had lower thresholds than loss magnitude, indicating a nonlinear two stage process from risk triggering to damage amplification. Thus, agricultural risk in the SSH is structurally driven by cropping systems and multiple climate extremes.