Distributional Shifts and Future Offshore Wind Energy Droughts Across the Mediterranean Basin

Offshore wind energy droughts are quantified at eight strategic sites using a Standardized Renewable Energy Production Index referenced to an 86-year-ERA5 baseline. Events are extracted via multi-threshold run theory and projected to 2100 using bias-corrected CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Drought climatology shows that mean drought duration and severity exhibit spatial heterogeneity, peaking in the Aegean–Cretan sector. Under future warming, a robust, false-discovery-rate-controlled intensification is predominantly concentrated in the central–western basin, associated with structural shifts toward weaker, heavy-tailed wind distributions. The Sicily Channel and Gulf of Lion emerge as hotspots for drought intensification, exhibiting consistent annual total duration increases of up to 20% and 15%, respectively, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Winter droughts across the basin are associated with a complex interplay of the AO, NAO, EA, and EA/WR teleconnections, alongside a pronounced winter MOI influence in the west. Summer droughts in the Aegean–Cretan sector are strongly coupled with the weakening of the MOI, reflecting the collapse of the basin-scale pressure gradient that sustains the Etesian winds. The central–western Mediterranean emerges as a key region for adaptive, long-duration energy storage planning, whereas the climatology of the eastern basin remains a defensible baseline for future capacity design.