Distinct habitat responses of eight typical fire-resistant tree species to climate change and human activities across latitudinal gradients in China

Abstract

Fire-resistant tree species are vital for reducing fire ignition and spread, thus playing a key role in maintaining forest biodiversity and ecosystem functions. However, understanding how these species respond to environmental change and human activities across latitudinal gradients in China remains unclear. Here, we integrated four species distribution models to identify the most effective approach for predicting current and future habitat shifts of eight typical fire-resistant tree species (Salix koreensis Andersson, Ulmus pumila L., Acer truncatum Bunge, Juglans mandshurica Maxim, Toona sinensis (Juss.) Roem., Michelia macclurei Dandy, Schima superba Gardner & Champ, and Castanopsis hystrix Hook. f. & Thomson ex A. DC.) in China under two emissions scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). We found a distinct latitudinal divergence in habitat distributions: S. koreensis, U. pumila, A. truncatum and J. mandshurica were predominantly found in northern and northeastern China, while T. sinensis, M. macclurei, S. superba, and C. hystrix dominated in southern China. Low-latitude species exhibited consistently higher habitat suitability than their high-latitude counterparts. Importantly, human activities primarily shaped the distributions of high-latitude species, whereas low-latitude species were more sensitive to climate, especially precipitation. Under future climate scenarios, low-latitude species are expected to expand northward, exhibiting greater range-expansion potential, whereas high-latitude species may shift north but lose habitat in the south, especially U. pumila and J. mandshurica face substantial contraction. These findings highlight the divergent responses of fire-resistant tree species to climate and anthropogenic pressures and provide a scientific basis for strengthening forest resilience and region-specific forest-fire prevention strategies.