Displacement Prediction and Monitoring Methods for Baishui River Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Predicting landslide displacement is important for geological-hazard early warning. In reservoir areas, displacement evolution is affected by rainfall, reservoir water level, vegetation variation, and the intrinsic non-stationarity of the displacement sequence, which makes accurate prediction difficult for conventional single-sequence models. To address this problem, this study proposes a residual-increment-oriented landslide displacement prediction framework that fuses multi-source monitoring variables. The displacement sequence is first processed into trend and periodic-related fluctuation representations, and the residual increment is used as the prediction target. Rainfall, reservoir water level, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are incorporated as external monitoring variables. A cross-branch attention mechanism models interactions among heterogeneous feature branches, and a sparse MoE-based fusion module is introduced to adaptively adjust branch contributions under different deformation conditions. The model predicts the displacement residual increment, from which the final displacement is reconstructed. A case study using the Baishui River (Baishuihe) landslide monitoring dataset was conducted, together with additional validation on the related Bazimen Z110 landslide monitoring dataset and comparisons against conventional recurrent, convolutional, statistical, and Transformer-based baselines. The results show that the proposed model achieves lower RMSE and MAE than the compared methods on the tested datasets. These findings suggest that residual-increment modeling, multi-source monitoring variables, and condition-dependent branch fusion can improve short-term displacement prediction for the tested reservoir-area landslide cases.