Digital Transformation of Tax Administration in Small EU Member States: Organisational Capacity, the Information Gap, and the Pre-DAC8 Baseline from Croatia (2020–2024)
Patricija TopićAbstract
Background and Purpose
The Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) and the eighth Directive on Administrative Cooperation (DAC8) reshape how EU tax authorities access cryptocurrency transaction data. This study examines the organisational-capacity deficit facing a small EU tax administration on the eve of DAC8, using Croatia’s cryptocurrency sector as the empirical setting.
Methods
Monte Carlo simulation (n=10,000; triangular distributions) is applied to primary turnover data from the Croatian Financial Services Supervisory Agency (HANFA) for three tax streams: capital gains tax (CGT), value-added tax (VAT), and corporate income tax (CIT). The framework integrates digital-government and organisational-capacity theory with Allingham-Sandmo as secondary lens.
Results
Cumulative theoretical tax liability is €13.8 million (95% CI: €8.8M–€20.3M). VAT is more stable than CGT (coefficient of variation, CV, 0.136 versus 0.414). A 317.7% turnover rise in 2023 coincides with pre-MiCA registration and euro adoption. Four capacity deficits emerge: absent disaggregated tax data, minimal supervisory enforcement, classification ambiguity, and MiCA licensing lag (first licence 9 April 2026).
Conclusion
Realised compliance effects of digital reporting depend on the receiving authority’s organisational capacity, not information availability alone. This is the first primary-data capacity assessment of a small EU tax administration’s DAC8 readiness; the methodology is transferable across small EU economies.