Digital Divide and Digital Consumption in China: Short-Term Spatial Spillover Effects and Regional Heterogeneity

This study examines a counterintuitive possibility: the digital divide may generate a short-term and conditional “digital-divide dividend” when intra-provincial digital inequality is accompanied by digital agglomeration, platform externalities, and spatial diffusion. Using provincial panel data from China during 2015–2024, this paper investigates the relationship between the digital divide and digital consumption within a spatial econometric framework. Based on an improved ICT Development Index and a two-way fixed-effects Spatial Durbin Model, this study examines the direct effects, spatial spillover effects, transmission channels, and heterogeneity characteristics of the digital divide. The results show that digital consumption exhibits significant positive spatial dependence. The digital divide is positively associated with digital consumption in the short term, and its spatial spillover effect is substantially stronger than its local effect. Mechanism analysis further indicates that this relationship operates through platform externalities, spatial spillovers, financial development, and R&D expenditure. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive association is more pronounced during the mature stage of digital development and in regions with relatively higher levels of digital development. However, this finding should not be interpreted as implying that digital inequality itself is desirable. Rather, it suggests that when digital resources are concentrated in leading regions, their agglomeration advantages may temporarily promote digital consumption through diffusion effects. Policy efforts should therefore focus on transforming digital agglomeration advantages into more inclusive digital diffusion, so that less-developed regions can better share the benefits of digital transformation.