Development-Stage Differences in Land-Use Carbon Effects of China’s Resource-Based Cities: Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms

In the context of global climate change and China’s dual-carbon strategy, this analysis examines how land-use transition is associated with land-use carbon effects in China’s resource-based cities. From the perspective of urban development stages, an analytical framework is built by linking development stage, land-use structure, and carbon source–sink structure. Using 262 resource-based cities from 2011 to 2023, we estimate land-use-related carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, and net land-use carbon effects with the carbon emission coefficient method and analyze their spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors using GeoDetector. The results show clear differences among city types. Mature cities form the largest group. Growth cities show the fastest expansion of impervious surfaces, while regenerative cities present signs of ecological recovery. This suggests that land-use transition is not simply the expansion of impervious surfaces, but a stage-dependent process of structural change. Land-use carbon effects also differ across stages. Mature cities maintain high and stable carbon-source effects. Growth cities exhibit increasing carbon-source effects, declining cities show reduced emissions but limited improvement in the carbon source–sink structure, and regenerative cities show improved carbon-sink capacity under ecological restoration. Overall, net land-use carbon effects follow a rise–decline–rebound pattern and show clear spatial heterogeneity and visually apparent clustering patterns. Population size has strong explanatory power, while interactions between socioeconomic and land-use factors further shape spatial differences. These results support stage-specific low-carbon transition strategies.