Large-scale clean-heating renovations are being carried out in northern China as part of important measures to optimize energy infrastructure, improve the atmospheric environment, and minimize peak CO2 emissions. Because rural areas in the urban–rural fringe are close to the city center, they have several advantages in centralized heating reforms, but there are no effective means to measure whether a transformation is economical or has good environmental effects. In this paper, based on an actual reconstruction project, 100 typical households were selected for a related test. These typical households evinced convergence and possessed certain regional characteristics; therefore, the applicability of the models had certain limitations. To make sure that the relevant factors were fully considered in establishing the model, a prediction model group was established regarding heat consumption in winter (four models in total) that could predict the actual effect well. Lastly, the authors used the model group to calculate economic effects and CO2 emission reduction in rural heating transformations in Beijing under different heating methods.

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