Development and validation of a novel model to predict pulmonary embolism in cardiology suspected patients: A 10-year retrospective analysis

Abstract

As there are no predictive models for pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with suspected PE at cardiology department. This study developed a predictive model for the probability of PE development in these patients. This retrospective analysis evaluated data from 995 patients with suspected PE at the cardiology department from January 2012 to December 2021. Patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts (7:3 ratio). Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, optimal predictive features were selected, and the model was established using multivariate logistic regression. The features used in the final model included clinical and laboratory factors. A nomogram was developed, and its performance was assessed and validated by discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Our predictive model showed that six PE-associated variables (age, pulse, systolic pressure, syncope, D-dimer, and coronary heart disease). The area under the curve – receiver operating characteristic curves of the model were 0.721 and 0.709 (95% confidence interval: 0.676–0.766 and 0.633–0.784), respectively, in both cohorts. We also found good consistency between the predictions and real observations in both cohorts. In decision curve analysis, the numerical model had a good net clinical benefit. This novel model can predict the probability of PE development in patients with suspected PE at cardiology department.