DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.188333.1 ISSN: 2046-1402

DETERMINATION OF POTENTIAL LOCATIONS FOR SETTLEMENT DEVELOPMENT BASED ON LAND CARRYING CAPACITY USING CELLULAR AUTOMATA (Case Study: Karangnunggal Subdistrict)

Randy Victor Wahab Wattimena, Saraswati Saraswati, Yulia Asyiawati, Nabila Kalsum Tuanany, Ramadhan Eka Prasetian, Chatarina Yosefina Janggur, Ranti Aprilia, Luthfiyyah Dzakiyyah Wopa, Atris Greisela Pattiasina, Hervin Maitimu, Mesak Ananias Miru, Zhuhril Ilmi, Sintiche Jasso, Andre Tamaela, Habel Brilian Natalio Taka, Ghazi Oktavidi Muslim
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Abstract Background Karangnunggal has been designated as the prospective capital of the Proposed New Autonomous Region of South Tasikmalaya Regency, a status expected to accelerate population growth and settlement land demand in an area that remains prone to landslides and earthquakes. Determining suitable settlement development locations is therefore critical to keeping this growth within the limits of land carrying capacity. Methods This study determined potential locations for settlement development in Karangnunggal Subdistrict by integrating land carrying capacity analysis with Cellular Automata (CA) modeling through the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS. The stages included land capability analysis based on nine Land Capability Units (LCU), land carrying capacity analysis following a spatial planning approach (a 60:40 ratio between built-up and open space), and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based CA simulation using driving and constraint variables to project land cover up to 2045. Results Land capability in Karangnunggal Subdistrict is dominated by the fairly high and high classes, with a potential land carrying capacity zone covering 9,154.36 Ha, or 60% of the total subdistrict area. The CA model demonstrated high reliability, indicated by a % of Correctness of 97.17529% and an overall Kappa of 0.96743. The projection shows settlement area increasing from 1,248.39 Ha (2015) to 1,770.39 Ha (2020) and reaching 2,617.95 Ha by 2045, with Karangnunggal Village as the center of highest growth, consistent with its function as the Proposed New Autonomous Region government center. Conclusions This study provides a more adaptive and controlled direction for settlement development in a disaster-prone area and offers input for regional spatial policy that balances development with environmental preservation.

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