Determinants of Perceived Public Value in PPPs for Urban Transport in Developing Contexts: An Ex‐Ante Structural Analysis of Guadalajara Light Rail Line 4

ABSTRACT

Public–private partnerships (PPPs) are widely used to deliver urban rail in developing contexts, although their contribution to public value remains contested. This paper offers an ex‐ante analysis of the determinants of perceived public value, using Mexico's Guadalajara Light Rail Line 4 as an illustrative case. Drawing on public‐value and robust‐governance theory, expert judgements are elicited in two rounds and 17 variables are analyzed with MICMAC structural analysis and a confirmatory AHP‐PROMETHEE II assessment. The perceived engine of public value is a socio‐economic core—cost–benefit to society and financial viability‐ shaped ex‐ante by governance and risk‐sharing. Environmental impact and technological innovation, however, emerge as low‐leverage variables that experts associate with the long term rather than with contract design. Over a 36‐year concession this risks entrenching a short‐term, economically driven model, so sustainability and innovation must be written into the contract through KPI‐linked payments, incentives and periodic review.