Determinants of goalkeeper defensive performance in professional futsal: A multilevel analysis of match and shot contexts

This study investigated match-level (260 matches) and shot-level (3725 saves and 675 goals) factors associated with goalkeeper performance in professional futsal. Match-level variables included competitive division, match location, outfield-player defensive actions, outfield-player saves, and missed shots. Goalkeepers save percentage was calculated for each match and analyzed using generalized linear mixed models (GLMM). Shot-levels analysis investigated the variables associated with goal occurrence probability, including tactical context, set-piece situations, shot distance, shot height, and goalkeeper positioning using GLMM. Goalkeepers save percentage averaged 84.3 ± 10.0%. Match-level analysis revealed no significant associations between goalkeeper save percentage and competition level, match location, outfield-player defensive actions, outfield-player saves, or missed shots (all p > 0.05). In contrast, shot-level analysis demonstrated that transition superiority situations (OR = 2.28, p < 0.001), rebounds (OR = 3.71, p < 0.001), sending-off situations (OR = 2.77, p < 0.02), flying-goalkeeper attacks (OR = 1.58, P < 0.05), penalties (OR = 6.10, p < 0.05), 10-m free kicks (OR = 3.0, p < 0.01), and direct free kicks (OR = 2.83, p < 0.001)significantly increased goal occurrence probability. Medium (OR = 0.38, p < 0.001) and long-distance (OR = 0.21, p < 0.001) shots were associated with lower scoring probability, whereas high shots (OR = 1.62, p < 0.001) increased the likelihood of conceding a goal. Goalkeeper interventions outside the penalty area (OR = 0.33, p < 0.001) were associated with reduced goal occurrence probability. These findings suggest that goalkeeper defensive performance in professional futsal is primarily influenced by the immediate tactical and situational characteristics of individual shooting scenarios.