Determinants of Food Import Dependency in Saudi Arabia: An ARDL Analysis

Saudi Arabia’s cereal imports are a cornerstone of its food security policy, driven by an arid climate, limited water resources, and persistently high domestic demand. This study employed the ARDL cointegration framework on data from 1992 to 2022 to explore the dynamic relationships among cereal imports (IMP), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), cereal production (PRO), and agricultural water use (WA). Descriptive analysis revealed a clear upward trend for cereal imports and GDP, contrasting with a downward trend for PRO and WA during the study period. This pattern reflects high import dependency, economic diversification, and water scarcity policies. The ARDL results confirmed a long-run equilibrium relationship, where GDP and agricultural water use showed a positive, significant relationship with cereal imports, while cereal production had a significant negative long-term impact on imports. Short-run dynamics were complex, suggesting that lagged increases in GDP and water use were associated with reduced imports, while cereal production had a positive impact on imports, which is attributed to the country’s low cereal self-sufficiency ratio and structural import dependence. The conclusion underscores the constraints of limited water resources, leading to greater reliance on cereal imports. The study recommends water-efficient agricultural strategies and adjusted import policies to enhance food security.