Declining Job Mobility in Australia: The Role of Demographic Change*

Job mobility – the rate at which workers change employers – is seen as an indicator of economic dynamism, tied to wage growth and productivity. ‘Official’ figures suggest job mobility has fallen by around 50 per cent over 50 years in Australia. This has generated much interest, but the drivers are not well understood. We begin by showing that official figures overstate job mobility in early years. The actual decline is smaller and is concentrated in the post‐GFC era. Next, we show that demographic change explains all of the pre‐GFC decline in job mobility, but almost none of the post‐GFC decline. The post‐GFC decline seems to be driven by reduced opportunities for younger workers, combined with a strong increase in post‐COVID job satisfaction.