Debt financing and budget support for the agro-industrial complex in agriculturally significant regions of Russia

In today's environment, the sustainable development of the agro-industrial complex depends largely on the financial capacity of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Regional budgets provide co-financing for state programs, support for agricultural producers, and support technical and technological modernization of the industry. However, the ability of regions to support agricultural expenditures is determined not only by the volume of federal transfers but also by the state of regional finances, the level of debt burden, the structure of public debt, and the cost of servicing it. The purpose of this article is to identify debt financing models for agriculturally significant regions of Russia and assess their relationship with budget support for the agricultural sector. Particular attention is paid to the modernization of the budget lending mechanism for 2024-2026, which has involved tightening requirements for budget loans and enhancing their targeting. The empirical basis of the study consists of 40 monthly data sets on the public debt structure of 26 agriculturally significant regions of the Russian Federation. The article uses structural and dynamic analysis methods, as well as the k-means method to form regional clusters. The study resulted in the identification of three debt financing models: a bank adaptation model, a budget dependence model and a moderate debt expansion model. It is shown that agricultural specialization gravitates toward a budget model, with most regions maintaining reliance on budget loans. It was found that the regional debt model and the priority of agricultural expenditures are weakly and statistically insignificantly related, with the relationship decreasing during the budget lending reform. It is concluded that key budget characteristics – the structure of debt financing and the scale of budget support for the agro-industrial complex – are determined primarily by state fiscal policy rather than by the region's independent debt strategy.