Current and Projected Burden of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Across Expanded BRICS Countries, 2022–2050: Implications for Clinical Practice in the Immunotherapy Era
Lamei Zhou, Yitao Tang, Libin Tian, Jian Liu, Lingling Zhou, Zhiqiang GuoBackground
Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has a distinctive geographic distribution and is increasingly managed with multimodal treatment strategies, including radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and immune checkpoint inhibitors. As treatment options expand, the future clinical burden of NPC may extend beyond cancer incidence and mortality to include greater demand for recognition and management of treatment‐related inflammatory complications. Updated comparative estimates across expanded BRICS countries may therefore help inform oncology service planning in the immunotherapy era.
Methods
We analyzed publicly available GLOBOCAN 2022 and Cancer Tomorrow data for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Egypt. Incidence, mortality, crude and age‐standardized rates, and age‐specific rates were summarized for 2022, while projected cases and deaths through 2050 were examined by country. The projected burden was interpreted in relation to future diagnostic, treatment, toxicity surveillance, and survivorship needs.
Results
Globally, 120,434 incident NPC cases and 73,482 deaths were estimated in 2022. China had the greatest burden among the included countries, with 51,010 incident cases and 28,408 deaths, followed by India. Males generally had higher standardized incidence and mortality rates than females, whereas the United Arab Emirates showed a more balanced sex distribution. NPC burden increased markedly with age in 2022, while projections indicated rising cases and deaths through 2050 in most countries, with the largest proportional increase observed in the United Arab Emirates. These changes may increase the number of patients requiring complex multimodal treatment and multidisciplinary evaluation of infection, tumor progression, radiation injury, and immune‐mediated toxicity.
Conclusions
NPC burden is heterogeneous across expanded BRICS countries. The current burden is concentrated in China, whereas the largest proportional future increase is projected in the United Arab Emirates, with substantial increases also expected in several other countries. In the immunotherapy era, these changes may increase demand for clinical pathways that support early recognition, differential diagnosis, and multidisciplinary management of treatment‐related inflammatory complications. These findings provide a population‐level basis for oncology service planning rather than direct evidence on the incidence or management of immune‐related adverse events.