Critical Mineral Supply Chain Dependence and Carbon Decoupling: Global Policy Implications for the Energy Transition

ABSTRACT

Low‐carbon technologies are central to the global energy transition, yet their deployment increasingly depends on secure and resilient critical mineral supply chains. Minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, graphite, and rare earth elements are essential inputs for renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, battery storage, and hydrogen‐related technologies, making mineral security an increasingly important energy‐policy concern. This study examines the relationship between energy–carbon decomposition, critical mineral import dependence, and GDP–carbon decoupling across selected International Energy Agency member and association economies over the period 1995–2022. Using a decomposition‐based panel framework, the analysis incorporates energy decomposition, carbon decomposition, value‐added energy intensity, value‐added carbon intensity, CO ₂ transport and storage, and a Critical Mineral Import Dependence Index. The findings indicate that energy decomposition and value‐added energy intensity are positively associated with GDP–carbon decoupling, whereas carbon decomposition, value‐added carbon intensity, and CO ₂ transport and storage exhibit negative associations. These estimates are interpreted as conditional empirical relationships rather than direct causal effects. The negative association of CO ₂ transport and storage may reflect short‐ to medium‐term adjustment costs, infrastructure constraints, technological maturity, or the concentration of such investments in hard‐to‐abate sectors. Importantly, the Critical Mineral Import Dependence Index captures exposure to imported transition minerals but does not measure the carbon emissions embodied in their extraction, processing, refining, or transportation. The findings should therefore be interpreted as evidence on territorial GDP–carbon decoupling conditioned by critical‐mineral supply‐chain dependence, rather than as evidence of complete global or consumption‐based decoupling. Overall, the study shows that critical‐mineral import dependence constitutes an important supply‐chain condition associated with the decoupling performance of low‐carbon energy transitions.