CRIMINOLOGICAL PROGNOSIS AND CRIMINOLOGICAL FORECASTING IN MODERN CRIMINAL POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

The article examines the theoretical and applied aspects of criminological forecasting and forecasting in the context of modern criminal policy of the Russian Federation. The relevance of the topic is due to the transformation of crime, the escalation of hybrid and digital forms of criminal activity, as well as the need to increase the scientific validity of crime prevention measures and criminal policy decisions. The purpose of the study is to clarify the place of criminological forecasting in the criminal policy system, identify institutional and methodological limitations of existing approaches, and develop practical recommendations for improving criminological forecasting in the Russian Federation. The methodological basis consists of dialectical, systematic, formal-legal, comparative-legal, statistical and predictive methods. The paper analyzes scientific literature, regulatory legal acts, official statistical data and strategic documents. It has been established that modern criminological forecasting in Russia needs institutionalization, unification of methods, strengthening interdepartmental data exchange and integration of qualitative and quantitative models. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the substantiation of a model of multilevel criminological forecasting, focused on information and analytical support of managerial decisions in the field of criminal policy. The practical significance of the work is determined by the possibility of using the proposed recommendations in the development of crime prevention programs, regulatory legal acts and in the management activities of law enforcement agencies and public authorities.