COVID-19 and Supply–Demand Asymmetry in Saudi Arabia’s Intercity Bus Network: Evidence from 2016 to 2022

Public transport recovery after major disruptions depends not only on passenger demand but also on how quickly service supply is adjusted. This study examines demand–supply dynamics in Saudi Arabia’s intercity bus network using 158,871 route-month observations from 2016 to 2022. Monthly passengers, departures, supplied seat capacity, and a seat-based capacity-utilization ratio were analyzed using segmented interrupted time-series models with Newey–West robust standard errors, a stacked demand–supply specification, route fixed-effects models, and sensitivity analyses. At the March 2020 pandemic onset, passenger demand declined by an estimated 75.6%, whereas reported supplied seat capacity fell by 88.4%; the difference was statistically significant. This initial asymmetry coincided with the government-mandated suspension of domestic bus service and should not be interpreted solely as a discretionary operator response. Reported supplied seats increased by 70.5% between September and October 2021 across both pilgrimage and non-pilgrimage corridors. Raw-data checks show that departures increased by only 3.4%, while the departure-weighted rated capacity increased from 24.0 to 39.6 seats. The discontinuity therefore reflects a change in the reported vehicle-capacity mix and may include operational restoration or administrative reclassification. By 2022, annual ridership reached 4.39 million passengers, or 91.7% of the 2019 level. The findings show that demand-only measures can obscure important operational dimensions of public transport resilience, while also demonstrating the need to validate administrative capacity fields before interpreting abrupt supply changes.