Coupling Coordination of Urbanization and Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Prediction

Against the dual strategic backdrop of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and high-quality urbanization development, extant literature exhibits four prominent research gaps: oversimplified evaluation indicator systems, exclusive exploration of the unidirectional carbon impacts exerted by urbanization, a scarcity of long-time-series coupling analyses targeting the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB), and functional fragmentation between coupling coordination assessment and predictive simulation tools. Drawing on panel data covering 11 provinces and municipalities within the YEB spanning 2000 to 2021, this study constructs a comprehensive urbanization evaluation framework encompassing four dimensions: population, economy, society, and spatial layout. Meanwhile, an integrated carbon emission assessment system is established from the perspectives of population, economy, energy consumption, and carbon sinks. The entropy-weight method is adopted to assign indicator weights, and a combination of the coupling coordination degree model and system dynamics (SD) model is employed to analyze spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics and simulate development trends from 2022 to 2032. By organically integrating the coupling coordination model and the SD model, this study establishes an integrated analytical framework that unifies static comprehensive evaluation and driving-mechanism decomposition, thereby compensating for the limitations of time-series forecasting models such as the grey prediction model and ARIMA, which only fit trends from historical data. Empirical results reveal that regional urbanization levels witnessed sustained growth across 2000–2021, with spatial urbanization acting as the core driving pillar. The overall coupling coordination degree maintained a steady upward trajectory, while the east–west regional disparity gradually narrowed. The simulation projections for 2022–2032 demonstrate continuous improvements in coordinated development across the entire basin: the coupling coordination degree ranges from 0.788 to 0.954 for the eastern region, 0.810 to 0.859 for the central region, and 0.752 to 0.865 for the western region. Such spatial differentiation corresponds to distinct practical development pathways: low-carbon stock optimization in the east, low-carbon industrial undertaking in the central zone, and clean energy transition acceleration in the west. All provincial-level administrative regions are projected to achieve an upgrade in their coupling coordination grades by 2032. This study acknowledges several limitations: missing raw data are supplemented via interpolation, only a single baseline scenario is simulated, predictive uncertainty is not quantitatively measured, and subjectivity persists in the weight assignment of coupling subsystems. Ultimately, differentiated low-carbon urbanization governance strategies are proposed for the three sub-regions, offering empirical references for the coordinated realization of dual carbon targets throughout the Yangtze River basin.