Coupling Coordination and Heterogeneous Driving Factors of New Quality Productive Forces and Industrial Structure Optimization: A Geodetector-Based Spatiotemporal Analysis

New Quality Productive Forces (NQPF) constitute a key driver of Industrial Structure Optimization and Upgrading (ISOU), while the advancement of ISOU provides an essential industrial foundation for the cultivation and development of NQPF. The coordinated development of these two systems is therefore critical to promoting high-quality regional economic development in China. This study develops a theoretical framework to clarify the formation of NQPF and the interactive relationship between NQPF and ISOU. It subsequently employs the coupling coordination degree model to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of their coordinated development across China from 2011 to 2023 and applies the Geodetector model to identify the principal driving factors. The results reveal three main findings. First, both NQPF and ISOU exhibited sustained upward trends during the study period, accompanied by pronounced spatial disparities. The eastern region consistently maintained the highest development levels in both systems, whereas the western region remained comparatively underdeveloped, with the east–west gap continuing to widen. Second, the national coupling coordination degree between NQPF and ISOU increased steadily, shifting from moderate imbalance to mild imbalance. Nevertheless, nearly 77% of provinces remained in an imbalanced state in 2023. High-value coupling coordination areas gradually formed a multicore spatial configuration centered on Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, resulting in an overall pattern characterized by eastern leadership, central transition, and western lagging. Third, the factors influencing coupling coordination exhibited marked regional heterogeneity. At the national level, economic development demonstrated the strongest explanatory power, followed by education and human capital accumulation. In the Yangtze River Economic Belt, economic development remained the dominant factor, while government intervention played an increasingly prominent role. In the Yellow River Basin, education surpassed economic development as the leading factor, whereas human capital was not statistically significant, indicating distinct regional driving mechanisms. Interaction detection further showed that most combinations of influencing factors generated nonlinear enhancement effects. These findings demonstrate that the coordinated development of NQPF and ISOU is shaped by both regional development disparities and the synergistic effects of multiple factors. Accordingly, regionally differentiated and multidimensional policy measures should be adopted rather than uniformly applying standardized policy instruments.