Cost–Carbon Dual Assessment of Hydrogen Versus Battery-Electric Powertrains for Chinese Road Freight: Coupling Hydrogen Pathway Costs with Regional Grid Carbon Intensity

Choosing between battery-electric and hydrogen fuel-cell trucks to decarbonize Chinese road freight hinges on two upstream quantities rarely assessed jointly: delivered hydrogen cost and regional grid carbon intensity. This study couples pathway-resolved delivered hydrogen costs with charging-region grid carbon intensity in one vehicle-level cost–carbon evaluation. A literature-anchored parametric simulation links six hydrogen pathways, seven regional grid settings, two truck classes, and three powertrains. It evaluates total cost of ownership (TCO), fuel-chain well-to-wheel carbon intensity (CI, vehicle manufacturing excluded), Pareto fronts, and the critical carbon price p*, with one-at-a-time sensitivity and a 10,000-draw Monte Carlo analysis. Renewable electricity is purchased at 0.25 CNY/kWh (zero-purchase supply retained as a labelled scenario), placing delivered hydrogen at 33.0–54.3 CNY/kg. For 49 t long-haul duty, TCO is 5.31 CNY/km (diesel), 4.70 (battery-electric; 11.5% lower per kilometre yet about 4% higher per tonne-kilometre, governed by the payload capacity ratio), and 7.92 (renewable-hydrogen fuel-cell; 49.1% higher). Across the same option space, WTW carbon intensity ranges from 198 to 3578 gCO2e/km. Eight finite critical carbon prices span 681.7–2936.4 CNY/tCO2, up to roughly 28 times the 2024 market band of 60–105 CNY/tCO2; parity probabilities remain near zero at current prices. Policy support should follow fuel carbon intensity and certified renewable-hydrogen siting, not vehicle purchases alone.