Cost-effective air defence: Optimising resource allocation for the protection of strategic assets

This article addresses the critical shortfall in preparedness for sustained high-intensity warfare among many NATO and EU states, with a particular focus on air and missile defence. It identifies not only technological gaps but also a strategic challenge in allocating limited resources to protect high-value assets under fiscal constraints. To inform decision-making, we develop a quantitative optimisation model that integrates probabilistic interception assessment with economic evaluation of ground-based air defence configurations. The model evaluates how alternative force structures influence both defensive effectiveness and cost efficiency, employing marginal analysis to demonstrate the diminishing returns of additional deployments. A scenario-based case study reflecting contemporary operational conditions illustrates the model’s practical application and validates its implications. Our findings indicate that effective air defence is shaped not only by technical capability but also by explicit strategic choices regarding risk tolerance, asset prioritisation, and long-term sustainment. By combining operational modelling with economic reasoning, the framework offers a structured tool for planners and policymakers to balance combat effectiveness with fiscal sustainability and resilience in the protection of critical assets.