Correlating High-Intensity Wildfires to Tree Mortality in Larch (Larix sibirica) Forest Stands of Siberia, Russia

A quantitative analysis of larch-dominated Siberian forest regions was conducted to evaluate wildfire characteristics in relation to Fire Radiative Power (FRP), long-term meteorological dynamics, and FRP range ratios. The results were validated against empirical stand mortality data spanning the period 2001–2024, obtained from the Global Forest Change dataset. Spatiotemporal burn characteristics were derived from the standard MODIS burned area product, while FRP data were extracted from the corresponding thermal anomalies product. Increasing trends in extreme FRP values were observed (4.5–17.9% of annual fire pixels), indicating that high-intensity fires progressively drive tree stand mortality statistics (R2 = 0.58, p < 0.01). Seasonal anomalies of the Duff Moisture Code (DMC), surface soil and litter moisture, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were the primary predictors of both wildfire intensity and tree cover mortality. Spatiotemporal analysis of FRP and tree cover mortality revealed that the most pronounced positive trends were concentrated in the central and northeastern forest regions of Siberia, which also exhibit high mean FRP values. These regions also experienced intensifying drought, as evidenced by the analysis of meteorological data. Consequently, under projected regional climate change, an escalating prevalence of high-intensity forest fires is anticipated to induce severe, potentially irreversible degradation of these forest stands and ecosystems.