Coordinated Dispatch for Partitioned Power Grids Under Extreme Weather with a Flexibility Supply–Demand Balance Approach

To address the insufficient flexibility in power systems caused by renewable energy output uncertainty during extreme weather events, a coordinated source–network–load–storage (SNLS) dispatch method that combines a flexibility supply–demand balance approach with a partitioned grid framework is proposed to achieve the effective enhancement of operational resilience. Firstly, a convolution method is employed to aggregate net load forecast error distributions, and expected flexibility demand metrics are introduced to construct a probabilistic model of compound weather impacts, thereby improving flexibility requirement quantification. Secondly, uncertainties arising from extreme meteorological conditions are considered, and an integrated economic dispatch model for the partitioned grid is established based on chance-constrained reserves and regulation capability envelopes, in order to co-optimize generation costs, demand response, and expected flexibility insufficiency penalties. Then, inter-zone power exchange and spatiotemporal unit commitment dynamics are introduced to optimally redistribute spatial generation surpluses and load deficits, so that a system-wide flexibility supply–demand balance is enabled. Finally, simulations are conducted on the real-world Guangdong 500 kV transmission network under typhoon, heatwave, and rainstorm scenarios, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in eliminating flexibility deficits, reducing total dispatch costs, and capturing distinct weather-adaptive operational patterns.