Contribution of Aerobic Physiological Variables to 500 m Sprint Kayak Performance in National-Level Athletes: A Hierarchical Regression Analysis

The purpose of this study was to examine the independent contribution of aerobic physiological variables to 500 m sprint kayak performance in national-level male athletes. Twenty-four male flatwater kayak athletes completed post-intervention physiological and performance assessments following a 6-week training intervention. Sprint performance was assessed using a 500 m kayak ergometer time trial. Pearson correlation and hierarchical multiple regression analyses were performed after accounting for training-group allocation. Power output at VO2max (POVO2max) demonstrated the strongest association with 500 m performance time (r = −0.71, p < 0.001). Hierarchical multiple regression analysis showed that training-group allocation explained a small, non-significant proportion of the variance in performance time (R2 = 0.082, p = 0.648). The addition of POVO2max significantly increased the explained variance (R2 = 0.708, ΔR2 = 0.626, p < 0.001); whereas, VO2max (ΔR2 = 0.012, p = 0.363) and post-exercise blood lactate concentration (ΔR2 = 0.004, p = 0.855) did not provide additional explanatory value. These findings indicate that POVO2max was the strongest independent physiological predictor of 500 m sprint kayak performance after accounting for training-group allocation.