Context Sensitivity and Previous-Choice Associations in Repeated Shot-Direction Decisions Among Adolescent Badminton Players

This study examined whether repeated shot-direction decisions in adolescent badminton players were associated with the current spatial context and the immediately preceding choice. Fifty systematically trained players aged 13–15 years completed a hidden-probability phase (Task 1), in which no numerical outcome probabilities were displayed at choice, followed by an explicit-probability phase (Task 2), in which one current outcome-probability dimension was displayed for the two route options. Task 1 constituted the primary analysis, and Task 2 provided a secondary boundary-condition assessment of the same choice structure. Primary inference was based on trial-level binomial generalized linear mixed-effects models for Task 1, complemented by rolling forward validation of out-of-sample prediction. In Task 1, relative to the center position, a left opponent position was associated with lower odds of a straight choice (OR = 0.087, 95% CI [0.059, 0.130]), whereas a right position was associated with higher odds (OR = 6.297, 95% CI [4.400, 9.013]). After adjustment for current context, trial progress, and position sequence, a previous straight choice was associated with lower odds of choosing straight on the next trial (OR = 0.430, 95% CI [0.339, 0.546]). Adding previous choice improved out-of-sample predictive performance (ΔELPD = 18.081, 95% CI [5.277, 30.885]), although the absolute improvement was modest. Task 2 produced directionally similar estimates in the mixed model, while participant-clustered generalized estimating equations provided weaker support for this association; this phase was therefore interpreted descriptively. Outcome-dependent and contextual Q-learning models showed no stable incremental predictive support beyond the context-plus-previous-choice baseline. Because route choice, screen location, and keypress were coupled by design, the previous-choice term indexes a composite history signal spanning tactical, spatial, and motor-response components.