Context-Gated Graph Modelling for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Traffic states evolve on irregular sensor graphs and vary with calendar context, yet the original ASTGCN does not explicitly model how the contribution of different graph receptive fields changes across traffic periods. This paper proposes CD-MRFG, a context-gated extension of ASTGCN that encodes hour-of-day, day-of-week and weekend information and uses the resulting representation to weight Chebyshev graph-convolution orders in each spatio-temporal block. Under a common 12-step forecasting protocol, CD-MRFG reduced the overall MAE and RMSE of the reproduced ASTGCN baseline from 18.66 and 31.05 to 16.98 and 28.59 on PEMS03, from 22.79 and 35.02 to 20.82 and 32.77 on PEMS04, and from 18.88 and 28.83 to 17.24 and 26.84 on PEMS08. Three-seed experiments confirmed lower mean MAEs on PEMS04 (p = 0.028) and PEMS08 (p = 0.042), although the corresponding RMSE differences did not reach the 0.05 significance threshold. Ablation, gate-weight, sensitivity, complexity and convergence analyses showed that temporal context was the main source of the improvement and that the gate provided a model-internal view of order selection with moderate overhead. CD-MRFG remains less accurate than several stronger recent baselines, so its value is a bounded and interpretable extension of ASTGCN rather than a universal state-of-the-art replacement.