Contemplating Conquest: Public Opinion on the Forcible Seizure of Territory

ABSTRACT

The norm against conquest—a central tenet of the international order—is eroding. This study is among the first to examine public support for this norm, using a real-world case: Israel’s seizure of Syrian territory following the collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024. Our survey experiment in Israel reveals that citizens are sensitive to the prohibition on conquest. They demonstrate greater support for an occupation that involves only military control of the forcibly seized territory and weaker support for civilian settlement in or annexation of the foreign territory: policies that amount to conquest. Our finding—a stronger preference for legally acceptable occupation over illegal settlement or annexation—sends a positive signal for the constraining power of norms.