Constructing European defence: From capability gaps to future trajectories in an IISS strategic dossier

Strategic documents produced by think tanks occupy an important communicative space between expert knowledge, institutional authority and public policy. This article examines how the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) constructs and legitimises the need to transform European defence in its 2025 strategic dossier, Progress and Shortfalls in Europe's Defence: An Assessment . Adopting a document-centred qualitative case study, the analysis combines critical discourse analysis, framing and discursive legitimation with complementary attention to argumentation, securitisation and strategic narratives. The dossier is analysed in its entirety, comprising 98 substantive pages, approximately 62,095 words and 440 unique identifiable sources. Qualitative coding identifies seven recurring discursive operations through which European defence is constructed as an urgent, measurable and relational strategic problem. The findings show how evidence, institutional and expert authority, urgency and feasibility are articulated to legitimate defence transformation. The article contributes to Communication and Media Studies by conceptualising the expert strategic document as a communicative site where strategic problems and future trajectories are constructed and legitimised.