Concepts of Simulation Computer Models of State Support Measures Aimed at Overcoming The Demographic Crisis in Russia

Demographic processes are currently a focus of special attention in modern Russia. For many years, the country has been experiencing a population shortage, which exacerbates economic problems and creates a threat to the state’s future existence. The article examines key mechanisms for achieving this goal, such as the national projects «Demography» (with a budget of 3,105.2 billion rubles) and «Family» (with a planned budget of 18 trillion rubles until 2030). Data on the main target indicators of such projects and their achievability at the current time were collected. Possible reasons why state support measures for demography do not have the full planned impact are analyzed. A promising direction in the analysis and search for solutions to demographic problems is computer modeling, particularly simulation and agent-based modeling. Thanks to modeling society in a virtual environment, it is possible not only to respond promptly to current problems but also to predict their occurrence in advance. This paper provides examples of simulation models that can become the basis for future state demographic support strategies. Methods for their improvement based on the use of modern neural networks have been formed. As a result of the work, a number of proposals have been put forward that suggest combining standard methods for solving demographic problems with the most modern techniques that take into account people’s thinking in conditions of economic, social, and political upheavals. Directions for possible future work aimed at answering the most important questions for the country regarding improving demography are indicated.