Concept of criminological modeling of counteraction to the criminal market of aquatic biological resources

The article presents the author's concept of criminological modeling of counteraction to the criminal market of aquatic biological resources (ABR). The relevance of the study is due to the high latency of illegal ABR turnover, the cross-border nature of criminal schemes and insufficient effectiveness of existing criminal law and criminological prevention measures. The aim of the work is to develop theoretical foundations and practical tools for modeling a counteraction system to the criminal ABR market as an integral object of criminological analysis. The methodological basis includes a system-structural approach, methods of criminological modeling, statistical analysis, comparative law, and the method of expert assessments. As a result of the study, the key elements of the criminal ABR market (demand, supply, actors, infrastructure, corruption links) are identified, the main determinants are determined, and a typology of counteraction models (repressive, compensatory, preventive-restorative) is proposed. A structural-functional model of a regional counteraction system is developed, including goals, actors, mechanisms of legal regulation, operational-search, control-supervisory and economic measures, as well as performance evaluation criteria. The necessity of introducing criminological monitoring of the state of the criminal ABR market based on indicators of latency, profitability and corruption penetration is substantiated. The article concludes that the concept of criminological modeling allows a transition from fragmentary prevention measures to systemic risk management of illegal ABR turnover.