DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.186541.1 ISSN: 2046-1402

Computational Modelling of Lithospheric Seismicity for Lithosphere Literacy: A Rapid Systematic Review and Evaluative Framework

Rahmi Zulva, Andi Suhandi, Agus Setiawan, Deni Moh.Budiman, Sohibun -, Dandan Luhur Saraswati, Dwi Nanda Akhmad Romadhon
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Background Computational models of lithospheric seismicity have diversified across physics-based rupture simulation, statistical seismicity models, and machine-learning (ML) forecasting, yet no synthesis has systematically linked this technical literature to lithosphere literacy — the capacity of non-specialists to interpret model outputs critically. This review maps the model landscape and evaluates its literacy-facing translation. Methods A rapid systematic review was conducted following PRISMA 2020 reporting items, adapted for a single-reviewer, web-search-based protocol rather than a full multi-database (Scopus/Web of Science/IEEE Xplore) export. Eight structured queries were run across a general academic web-search engine in a single session (8 July 2026). Sixty records were retrieved; after removing 3 duplicates, 57 unique records were screened against pre-specified eligibility criteria; 29 were included in the final synthesis. Results Included studies clustered into four families: physics-based rupture/wave-propagation and fault-interaction models (n = 9), machine-learning forecasting frameworks (n = 9), hazard/uncertainty visualisation and communication studies (n = 6), and education/literacy-translation studies (n = 5). Explicit uncertainty communication was reported in a minority of ML studies; dedicated literacy- or education-facing translation was reported in fewer than one-fifth of all included studies, and almost never co-occurred with physics-based or ML forecasting studies. Conclusions A structural gap separates technically advanced seismicity modelling from literacy-oriented translation. A three-tier framework — mechanistic transparency, uncertainty communication, and pedagogical translation — is proposed to guide future model reporting. Given the single-reviewer, web-search-based search strategy, these findings should be treated as a rapid evidence assessment; a full systematic review with independent dual screening and formal database export is recommended before the framework is used for policy or curriculum decisions.

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