Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Gas Infrastructure in New Urban Built-Up Areas: Indicator System and Empirical Study

Abstract

The urban gas supply system plays an essential role as a fuel for urban production and daily life. However, because of the flammable and explosive nature, gas incidents can result in severe casualties and property damage. Therefore, gas infrastructure risks have always been a core concern in urban disaster prevention and reduction, especially when constructing new cities simultaneously with gas systems. This study aims to evaluate the potential risks of gas in newly constructed urban areas. Through a combination of literature review, policy research, and expert interviews, a total of four first-level indicators with 14 secondary indicators and 32 tertiary indicators were identified. A risk assessment model was developed, and a case study was conducted. Using data from experienced professionals collected through surveys, the model calculated scores for each risk factor, risk category, and risk level. By ranking the risks of four first-level indicators based on scores and analyzing the secondary indicators according to the characteristics of risk rankings, the effectiveness of the model was confirmed by comparing with the characteristics of the case. This study expands the indicators, models, and methods for assessing gas system risks in new urban areas, providing a reference to urban planners and developers.