Comprehensive modeling of the fair value of public companies in the context of macroeconomic instability: analysis of PJSC M.Video" for the period 2026-2027

This paper presents a comprehensive system analysis of the factors determining the fair value of shares of PJSC M.Video" for the planning period 2026-2027. The research is based on a synthesis of fundamental, econometric and algorithmic approaches. The key methodological core is the multifactorial discounted cash flow model (DCF), expanded by accounting for premiums for credit, strategic and competitive risks. A distributed lag model (ARDL) with an error correction mechanism was used to account for time lags and macroeconomic shocks. In parallel, an ensemble of machine learning algorithms was implemented, including gradient boosting (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost), random forest, and neural networks, which made it possible to identify nonlinear dependencies and interpret the influence of features through SHAP analysis. All models were calibrated based on official company reporting data and macroeconomic forecasts of the Bank of Russia. The conducted modeling made it possible to quantify the impact of key factors. The dominant negative impact is caused by the critical debt burden (net debt/EBITDA at 4.1x) and the high cost of servicing it (interest expenses of 23 billion rubles for the first half of the year). Competitive pressure from marketplaces is assessed as a systemic factor that reduces profitability. The explosive growth of the company's own marketplace (+58-83% in 4Q2025) and successful diversification into the "furniture" and "sports" product categories, which make the greatest positive contribution to the forecast models, were identified as compensating drivers. The integration of the results of the ensemble of models through a weighted average estimate, taking into account probabilistic scenarios (from stressful to optimistic), allowed us to determine the current market price (about 83 rubles). as fair and reflecting a balance of risks and growth potential. The range of fair value for 2026 varies from 20-40 rubles. (risk scenario) up to 105-200 rubles (optimistic), with probability concentration in the base range of 60-100 rubles. The final weighted average target price for 2026 coincided with the current market level (83 rubles), which confirms the adequacy of the models built, and the forecast for 2027, taking into account the expected rate reduction and scaling of new directions, is estimated in the range of 90-100 rubles.