Comprehensive Economic-Environmental Assessment of Hybrid, Battery Electric, and Fuel Cell Vehicles: Incorporating Battery Replacement, Recycling Value, and Infrastructure Sensitivity

The shift towards low-carbon transport is increasingly influenced by choices among hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Typical comparative analyses often focus solely on lifecycle cost or environmental performance, frequently assuming fixed battery behavior and simplified end-of-life processes. These simplifications can obscure complex interactions between battery longevity, when batteries are replaced, the value recovered through recycling, and how energy and emissions vary based on infrastructure. This research introduces a comprehensive lifecycle techno-economic and emissions framework that explicitly considers mid-life battery replacement dynamics, the economic recovery from recycling, residual value recovery with proper discounting, and energy and emissions inputs sensitive to infrastructure. A discounted Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model is combined with a lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment spanning a 15-year operational period. Scenario and sensitivity analyses evaluate the model's resilience under fluctuating energy prices and uncertainties in battery costs. The study also examines variations in replacement timing and differences in grid carbon intensity. Quantitative initial findings, derived using consistent parameters, indicate that HEVs offer economic stability when electricity prices or battery costs are high. BEVs exhibit the lowest lifecycle emissions in scenarios with low-carbon electricity, and retrieving value through recycling diminishes the long-term volatility of ownership costs. Analyses of sensitivity and uncertainty pinpoint electricity price and battery replacement cost/schedule as key economic drivers for BEVs, while grid carbon intensity is the primary factor influencing emissions rankings. This integrated framework uncovers economic turning points and emissions trade-offs that are not revealed by deterministic or single-metric comparisons, underscoring the vital role of circular battery economics and infrastructure preparedness in shaping realistic pathways toward decarbonization.